So, I’m going to be completely open and honest here; the majority of the time, I’m disgusted by some of the stuff I read on social media. Today is no different…seeing people making statements like “me and my child won’t be muzzled”, “I wont wear a mask because I have asthma”, “there are bigger problems than people not wearing masks, like the number of people having abortions each year” and the general mud slinging from people who are bucking against each other fills me with pure rage at how ignorant & nasty we can be to each other. TBH though, I’m more disgusted by the complete lack of ability for the Government or media to explain WHY things have changed in easy to understand terms. So, I’m going to try my best to explain what’s going on and why we’re all now being asked to wear masks in public, using an example based on Fire-breathing, chocolate eating, crochet Dragons. Obviously, for any friends from the scientific community reading this is pretty simplified, but I hope it helps...here goes...
Before we learn anything about our dragons, we actually need to learn something really important about science…or more specifically, the science of risk. All we seem to be told (or seem to be telling each other when writing an angry posts about why we WILL NOT bow to 'the man' and wear a mask) is that “the science” has changed. This is completely incorrect. Yes, all fields of science grow and evolve, and sometimes the findings don’t always agree completely, but the big thing that’s changed here is not “the science”, its the outcomes of the risk assessment into which the facts are fed, and as a result the risk management approach that’s taken. See, when we’re working out how to keep people safe, we use something called Risk Assessment & Management to do that. At a basic level, Risk is worked out by understanding the HAZARD of something (its potential to do harm) & our EXPOSURE level to it (how much of it we come into contact with…more being worse). When we know these things, we can work out RISK, and depending on whether it’s Low, Medium or High without any intervention from us, we can take RISK MANAGEMENT measures to help reduce the risk (like PPE or social distancing).
So, with this said, let’s get back to our dragons. In this example, I’ve replaced people with a population of fire-breathing, chocolate eating, crochet Dragons. Kind of a cross between Excitable Edgar & the Clangers soup dragon if you will.
Unfortunately, due to a series of poor decisions by the Dragon Leaders, the dragon population has succumbed to a major bout of Dragonups - a contagious illness that gives the dragons uncontrollable firey hiccups. If a dragon is hit by one of these fireballs, it leaves a nasty singe & after a few days leads to onset of the poor dragon's own case of Dragonups. While a lot of dragons seem to have a rough time with Dragonups but do recover, some really become ill and ultimately die from a scorched throat. Doing nothing just means that LOADS of the dragons are now getting sick, and the risks of catching Dragonups are getting higher and higher. If we were to write it down, it would look something like this:
PRE-LOCKDOWN RISK ASSESSMENT HAZARD: Increasing numbers of Fire Breathing, chocolate eating crochet Dragons with Dragonups. EXPOSURE: High - all Dragons, including those most vulnerable to Dragonups, are out and about as usual, ignoring the advice not to breathe fireballs or snuffle each other when they meet. RISK ASSESSMENT: Hazard is high, exposure is uncontrolled. Bad news. RISK MANAGEMENT: The only way to stop the spread now is to lock down the dragons, and stop them mingling under anything other than essential circumstances. Snuffling is strictly prohibited, and advice on how to avoid breathing fireballs in public is issued.
Once the dragons are locked down, things are uneasy, but the Dragonups outbreak is starting to be brought under control. So, the risk assessment & management now looks something like this:
IN-LOCKDOWN RISK ASSESSMENT HAZARD: High numbers of Fire Breathing, chocolate eating crochet Dragons with Dragonups. EXPOSURE: Minimal - all are safely in their houses, and only healthy Dragons venture out in small numbers to gather chocolate. Unwell dragons are isolated. Vulnerable dragons are protected. RISK ASSESSMENT: Hazard is high, but exposure is controlled. RISK MANAGEMENT: Keeping dragons apart is working. Fire-retardant Masks are given to unwell dragons and those likely to be in close contact them to try and minimise the potential for healthy dragon carers to pick up the disease.
After a while, things start to improve. The number of dragons with Dragonups decreases lots, and the decision is taken to start allowing dragons out to do more than just collect chocolate. The dragons are delighted and excitedly start making trips to have their crochet scales brushed and dyed, visiting other dragon friends to eat chocolate together, and resume sporting activities such as long-distance flying & attending their local sunbasking club. During easing of lockdown, risk assessment & management plan looks something like this:
LOCKDOWN EASING RISK ASSESSMENT HAZARD: Low numbers of Fire Breathing, chocolate eating crochet Dragons with Dragonups. EXPOSURE: Moderate to high - while unwell dragons (and their home bubbles) are still encouraged to isolate, many many many more dragons on the whole are out and about, and because Dragonups takes a few days to set in, there’s a chance some of those healthy dragons might be contagious but not sick yet. RISK ASSESSMENT: Hazard is lower, but exposure has increased. RISK MANAGEMENT: Because so many more dragons are out and about, including those dragons who were classed as vulnerable, Fire-retardant Masks are recommended whenever dragons are close by one another. This is to help stop contagious dragons from unknowingly spreading dragonups to others around them when they let out any fire, whether that be through a little hiccup, sneeze or roar of hello to a dragon friend. Because nobody can be quite sure who’s contagious and who’s not, and who’s vulnerable and who’s not…EVERY dragon is asked to do this.
Because on the whole, everyone knows that fire breathing, chocolate eating crochet dragons are a pretty cool bunch of creatures, they all wear the masks, on the understanding that they can take them off for flying practise so long as they stay well away from other dragons. Because they all helped each other out in the name of dragon-kind, our bunch of dragons have eradicated Dragonups…they’re now free to sneeze, roar and snuffle close up again with whichever dragon they fancy. And this, in a nutshell, is the science of risk management & why we all need to stop moaning about masks and just do our bit to help each other.
~The end.
Bryony Ross is a Consultant Scientist, Group Fitness Specialist and Les Mills International Trainer. If you'd like to stay in touch with what she's up to, please feel free to subscribe & she'll be in touch when there are interesting things to share (not every day, and no spam, promise).
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